The theater of Nigerian politics has officially entered its most audacious act yet. On May 24, 2026, the All Progressives Congress (APC) Presidential Primary Election Committee, led by Senator Anyim Pius Anyim, declared President Bola Ahmed Tinubu the winner of the party’s 2027 presidential ticket.
The numbers announced were not just staggering; they were an open insult to the mathematical reality of Nigerian voter behavior.
In a nationwide direct primary that allegedly saw millions of party members queuing up at 8,809 wards across the 37 states and the FCT, President Tinubu was awarded 10,999,162 votes.
His sole, brave challenger, Stanley Osifo—who famously parted with ₦100 million for the nomination form—was left with a humiliating **16,503 votes**, failing to score a single vote in 21 states and gathering just one lone vote in his native Edo State.
To the uninitiated, this looks like a resounding grassroots endorsement. To anyone who understands the baseline of Nigerian electoral data, these figures are a manufactured, dangerous statistical mirage.
The Mathematics of Absurdity: 2023 Reality vs. 2026 Fiction
To understand how outrageous the APC’s 11 million primary votes are, we must hold them up against the mirror of the last actual general election.
In February 2023, after a grueling, highly contested, nationwide general election involving the entire Nigerian voting population, Bola Ahmed Tinubu won the presidency with 8,794,726 votes. Let that sink in.
2023 General Election (All Nigerians): 8,794,726 votes
2026 APC Primary Election (Party Only): 10,999,162 votes
The Mathematical Inflation: +2,204,436 votes
The APC is asking the public to believe that within its party alone, President Tinubu has secured 2.2 million more votes than he did from the entire country in 2023.
Are we to believe that amid a biting economic landscape, severe inflation, and widespread public discontent, the ruling party suddenly generated millions of enthusiastic new loyalists who did not exist when the party was at peak momentum?
The 2022 Precedent: Where Did the Magic Millions Come From?
Look back at the 2022 APC presidential primary, which was decided by the delegate system. In that keenly contested primary, Tinubu won with **1,271 votes** out of 2,322 delegates.
By switching to a direct primary model in 2026, where every registered party member supposedly votes, the APC has effectively removed the checks, balances, and independent oversight that come with general elections managed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
According to Senator Anyim, the party has 12,643,316 registered members, and 11,069,746 were accredited for this primary. This implies an unbelievable 87.5% voter turnout rate among party members.
In a country where general election turnouts routinely struggle to hit 30%, a near-90% turnout at the ward level for an uncompetitive primary is a statistical impossibility.
The state-by-state breakdowns further expose the manipulation:
Lagos State: Allocated 814,988 votes to Tinubu in this primary. In the 2023 general election, Tinubu polled only 572,606 votes in Lagos and actually lost the state to the opposition.
Adamawa State: Awarded Tinubu 644,149 votes in the primary, a state where he scored just 182,881 votes in the 2023 general election.
Kaduna State: Recorded 618,914 votes for Tinubu in the primary, compared to his 2023 general election tally of 399,293.
What is Tinubu’s Message to the Opposition?
This aggressive inflation of primary numbers across presidential, governorship, and senatorial lines is not an accidental byproduct of over-enthusiastic local politicians. It is a deliberate, calculated psychological and strategic message aimed squarely at the opposition ahead of 2027.
1. Psychological Demoralization
By launching into the atmosphere numbers that exceed the total volume of votes needed to win a general election, the APC is trying to signal that the 2027 election is already a done deal.
It tells opposition parties—the PDP, Labour Party, and NNPP—that even if they unite, the APC grassroots machinery can easily fabricate an unbeatable baseline of 11 million votes before the first general ballot is even cast. It is designed to induce voter apathy among the populace, making them feel that voting is useless.
2. Normalizing the Abnormality (The “Dress Rehearsal”)
APC National Chairman Nentawe Yilwatda casually dismissed viral videos and widespread reports of irregularities, calling the primary a successful “dress rehearsal” for a definitive 2027 victory.
That phrase is incredibly telling. A dress rehearsal means they are practicing the script. The strategy is to establish these massive numbers in the public consciousness now, so that when similarly inflated, impossible figures are declared during the 2027 general elections, the party can claim,
“But we already showed you we had 12 million registered, active members back in 2026.”
The Blueprint: Write down an impossible figure in a room, back it up with zero independent verification, use state-backed party structures to ratify it, and dare the public or the courts to prove otherwise.
The New “Writing” Strategy
What we are witnessing across the states—from the presidential primary down to Senate and governorship tickets—is the institutionalization of a “writing” culture over an “election” culture.
When a primary challenger like Stanley Osifo cannot secure a single vote in 21 states, it is not because he has no supporters; it is because the internal democratic space has been completely flattened.
If these outrageous primary outcomes are allowed to stand as a benchmark for political strength without fierce criticism from civil society, the press, and the opposition, Nigeria’s democracy will transform entirely into a one-party state masquerading as a republic.
The APC has shown its hand early. They are not planning to win 2027 by convincing Nigerians through economic relief or governance; they are planning to win it through the sheer, unadulterated weight of manufactured numbers. The defense of Nigeria’s democracy must begin now by rejecting the fiction of May 23.